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Inflation Monitor – October 2016

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Inflation Monitor Summary – Composite Ranking

Inflation Monitor - October 2016 Summary

 

 

Inflation Monitor – October 2016 – Introduction

Happy October! We are in the heat of the presidential election cycle which thankfully will end in early November. We have the two least liked candidates fighting for control over the POTUS position. We have already had three debates… If you could call it that. After watching the first debate… On to brighter topics… Deutsche Bank has been in real trouble lately. The kind of trouble that Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and many other US financial institutions were in in 2008. High leverage, holding bonds of questionable quality, and institutional investors starting to pull their money and run for the doors. If you are familiar with the concept of yelling fire in the theater, a bank run is very similar.

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Inflation Monitor – April 2015

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Inflation Monitor Summary – Composite Ranking

Inflation Monitor Summary - April 2015

 

* The Inflation Equilibrium is a quick summary for the whole data series of the inflation monitor. If you don’t like statistics, this is the chart for you.

 

Inflation Monitor – April 2015 – Introduction

Spring is finally here and with it comes the warm weather. Unfortunately the warm weather has not been able to thaw out deflation or the wintery economic chill that has gripped certain parts of the US economy and many European nations.

The CPI continues to hit negative territory on an annual basis for the second month in a row. The PPI is well into negative territory as well. This does not bode well for the US economy.

Commodity prices have also continued to show weakness. The bright spot in the US economy is housing which has been climbing for the past few months and started to pick up its pace.

There are many excuses that have been proposed for these numbers: the heavy snowfall in the North East this past winter, the significant drop in oil prices, the rising US Dollar, and more. These are all valid reasons for the drop in the CPI, PPI, and other economic data. However what I find amusing is the commentators who claim the high oil prices were a good thing for the economy, now say that low oil prices are good for the economy… Well which is it?

The stock market is not the economy”  – Author Unknown

This axiom is more important than any you will learn about the stock market. What it means is that the economy does not always lead or follow the actions of the stock market. While they are obviously related, they are not the same.

The US stock market is currently holding up well considering the negative economic data. While the two are highly correlated, they do not always act in unison. However I do expect the stock market to follow the economic trends in the second half of this year unless we see a sharp reversal in trend of the US Dollar and Oil.

In this months Inflation Monitor I have some very interested charts to share with you. Enjoy.

As always, please contact me to send your feedback on how I can make this monthly Inflation Monitor a better tool and resource for you. Thank you for reading and I hope you enjoy this month’s issue – Inflation Monitor – April 2015.

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Inflation Monitor Monthly

 

Kirk Chisholm

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Inflation Monitor – February 2015

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Inflation Monitor – February 2015 – Introduction

It is now February and it is off to a good start with the New England Patriot winning the Super Bowl… Sorry the big game. Even if you were not a fan, it was a great game to watch up until the last play. The win helped warm the city from the cold chill of deflation setting in around the US. It has been a few months since I have started the Inflation Monitor and each of those months has been marked with deflation. I have been saying for the past few years that deflation is in our future despite all the money printing by the Federal Reserve. It appears as if this is now become apparent to everyone else. Although there are many deflation deniers out there who think it cannot happen and wont happen.

I just got back from the TD Ameritrade conference in San Diego. One of the keynote speakers was Craig Alexander, the Chief Economist at TD Bank. Normally this is one of my favorite speakers at the conference each year, however this time I noticed something different…

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Inflation Monitor – January 2015

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inflation monitor
 

Inflation Monitor January 2015 – Introduction

I hope you had a pleasant holiday season. Now that the eggnog has run out (although probably more likely the rum), your trees and menorahs have been put away until next year, and you are getting back to work in this cold weather (what else is there to do when it is this cold except work). Lets see what the new year has brought for us as a present. In this month’s issue I will mainly be discussing oil prices and the US Dollar. The two areas which are generating the most interest.

To start the year I am going to play around with the format a bit to see what works best for people. In this months issue I am planning on breaking the bottom section of the Inflation Monitor into separate excerpts through out the month based on thoughts or ideas that I have had rather than wait until the end of the month. I will try to spread this out a bit more a see if this is a more desirable setup. While this might be a bit scatterbrained, it might get back to what this section was supposed to be: inflation monitor data, then some ideas, not a lengthy dissertation. This month was difficult to focus on much else since oil has played such a large part of the public’s interest. So we will focus more on oil and the US Dollar.

This is the first issue of the Innovative Advisory Group Inflation Monitor in 2015. We continue to receive a lot of positive feedback on our first few issues of the Inflation Monitor. As you will notice, we have taken some of this feedback and make some minor adjustments to our issues each month. As always, please contact me to send your feedback on how I can make this monthly Inflation Monitor a better tool or resource for you.

Thank you for reading and I hope you enjoy this month’s issue – Inflation Monitor January 2015.

Kirk Chisholm

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