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Inflation Monitor – May 2015

Inflation Monitor / By Kirk Chisholm / 06/01/2015

Inflation Monitor Summary – Composite Ranking

* The Inflation Equilibrium is a quick summary for the whole data series of the inflation monitor. If you don’t like statistics, this is the chart for you.

Inflation Monitor – May 2015 – Introduction

This month we were a bit slow getting this out due to some website upgrades. We expect that this June version of the Inflation Monitor will be out in 2 weeks so you will get a double dose of information.

May was a month of mixed results. Some data is showing some signs of life with inflation, but others show the decline of inflation continues… albeit slowly. Based on my estimates,2 Q3 and Q4 of this year should start to show some signs of economic slowdown. While we have started to see this in the earnings numbers, due to a lot of the hedging done by large public companies, the earnings may be less impressive when those hedges expire.

The quick rise in the US Dollar and lack of QE in the US may be too much for the US economy to handle. It typically takes a few months before these effects filter down into the economy. But I xpect later this year to see the results of those changes. There are many interesting data points to consider, but the PPI is one of the most interesting this month.

Other issues which are concerning…

The effects of debt have been slowly accumulating in the US over time and have put an increasing amount of weight on the growth of the US economy. It is hard to grow out of a recession when a large amount of your revenues go to paying off interest on your debt. Maybe this can put some perspective on the balance sheet of the US.

According to the GAO, the US has net worth of -17.7T, which is higher than the -16.9T last year. If you include the 42T in unfunded liabilities, this brings the total net worth of the US to -60T. That is not small amount of money to pay back. This is a little over $188,000 per person in liabilities. I think it is unlikely that this will get paid back in anything but inflation. What if the US cannot inflate away their debts like other countries have in the past? That will put the US in an interesting position. The available options are not pretty.

While there is constant discussion about how big of a problem this it… and it is, the reality is that this won’t be a problem until it is. By this I mean that the US, as the world’s reserve currency, has a special position in that they cannot default on their debt unless they choose to. Other countries do not have that luxury.

As long as the US Dollar is desirable to the rest of the world, we can continue to play this charade as long as we want. Then one day that will change and we will be in trouble. Until then, party like its 1999.

Enjoy this month’s Inflation Monitor – May 2015.

Inflation Monitor – April 2015

Inflation Monitor / By Kirk Chisholm / 05/01/2015

Inflation Monitor Summary – Composite Ranking

* The Inflation Equilibrium is a quick summary for the whole data series of the inflation monitor. If you don’t like statistics, this is the chart for you.

Inflation Monitor – April 2015 – Introduction

Spring is finally here and with it comes the warm weather. Unfortunately the warm weather has not been able to thaw out deflation or the wintery economic chill that has gripped certain parts of the US economy and many European nations.

The CPI continues to hit negative territory on an annual basis for the second month in a row. The PPI is well into negative territory as well. This does not bode well for the US economy.

Commodity prices have also continued to show weakness. The bright spot in the US economy is housing which has been climbing for the past few months and started to pick up its pace.

There are many excuses that have been proposed for these numbers: the heavy snowfall in the North East this past winter, the significant drop in oil prices, the rising US Dollar, and more. These are all valid reasons for the drop in the CPI, PPI, and other economic data. However what I find amusing is the commentators who claim the high oil prices were a good thing for the economy, now say that low oil prices are good for the economy… Well which is it?

The stock market is not the economy” – Author Unknown

This axiom is more important than any you will learn about the stock market. What it means is that the economy does not always lead or follow the actions of the stock market. While they are obviously related, they are not the same.

The US stock market is currently holding up well considering the negative economic data. While the two are highly correlated, they do not always act in unison. However I do expect the stock market to follow the economic trends in the second half of this year unless we see a sharp reversal in trend of the US Dollar and Oil.

In this months Inflation Monitor I have some very interested charts to share with you. Enjoy.

As always, please contact me to send your feedback on how I can make this monthly Inflation Monitor a better tool and resource for you. Thank you for reading and I hope you enjoy this month’s issue – Inflation Monitor – April 2015.

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Kirk Chisholm

Inflation Monitor – March 2015

Inflation Monitor / By Kirk Chisholm / 03/23/2015

Inflation Deflation Composite Ranking

* The Inflation Equilibrium is a quick summary for the whole data series of the inflation monitor. If you don’t like statistics, this is the chart for you.

Inflation Monitor – March 2015 – Introduction

It is March and as of today spring is finally here. It doesn’t feel like spring. I only hope that the weather warms up so I don;t have to wear a winter parka in April.

Boston finally broke the record for snowfall this year with 108.6 Inches. The prior record was 107.9 inches in 1872. This broken record was no reason to celebrate since the Governor had to call in the National Guard to help with the snow. Having experienced prior large snow storms in the City of Boston, I can tell you that the situation this year was mismanaged. There was no reason to call in the national guard.

Boston’s lack of preparedness is much like the financial markets with deflation. Deflation has caught a lot of people off guard. A number of European countries currently have negative interest rates, Germany and Switzerland rates are negative out to 6 and 10 years. What the future holds with negative interest rates is anyone’s guess, but the idea of negative interest rates is a dangerous one if the trend continues lower.

Is the US stock market safe from global deflation?

The S&P 500 and US Treasuries are an anomaly in the global equity and bond markets. The US Treasury has the highest interest rate compared to any other developed country. The S&P 500 continues to rise despite the global deflation effecting countries and equity prices around the world.

A Visual History of Income Inequality in the US

Wall Street Wisdom / By Kirk Chisholm / 03/05/2015

Income Inequality in America

NPR put out some great images on income inequality recently. They describe the history of income inequality in the US in a way you might not have considered. Many statistics are hard to interpret, but these aren’t. At first glance you might immediately jump to the conclusion that the bottom 90% of income earners have gotten squeezed since 1970. However if you look at the entire chart, it might put things into a different perspective.

Inflation Monitor – February 2015

Inflation Monitor / By Kirk Chisholm / 02/14/2015

Inflation Monitor – February 2015 – Introduction

It is now February and it is off to a good start with the New England Patriot winning the Super Bowl… Sorry the big game. Even if you were not a fan, it was a great game to watch up until the last play. The win helped warm the city from the cold chill of deflation setting in around the US. It has been a few months since I have started the Inflation Monitor and each of those months has been marked with deflation. I have been saying for the past few years that deflation is in our future despite all the money printing by the Federal Reserve. It appears as if this is now become apparent to everyone else. Although there are many deflation deniers out there who think it cannot happen and wont happen.

I just got back from the TD Ameritrade conference in San Diego. One of the keynote speakers was Craig Alexander, the Chief Economist at TD Bank. Normally this is one of my favorite speakers at the conference each year, however this time I noticed something different…

Inflation Monitor – January 2015

Inflation Monitor / By Kirk Chisholm / 01/16/2015

Inflation Monitor January 2015 – Introduction

I hope you had a pleasant holiday season. Now that the eggnog has run out (although probably more likely the rum), your trees and menorahs have been put away until next year, and you are getting back to work in this cold weather (what else is there to do when it is this cold except work). Lets see what the new year has brought for us as a present. In this month’s issue I will mainly be discussing oil prices and the US Dollar. The two areas which are generating the most interest.

To start the year I am going to play around with the format a bit to see what works best for people. In this months issue I am planning on breaking the bottom section of the Inflation Monitor into separate excerpts through out the month based on thoughts or ideas that I have had rather than wait until the end of the month. I will try to spread this out a bit more a see if this is a more desirable setup. While this might be a bit scatterbrained, it might get back to what this section was supposed to be: inflation monitor data, then some ideas, not a lengthy dissertation. This month was difficult to focus on much else since oil has played such a large part of the public’s interest. So we will focus more on oil and the US Dollar.

This is the first issue of the Innovative Advisory Group Inflation Monitor in 2015. We continue to receive a lot of positive feedback on our first few issues of the Inflation Monitor. As you will notice, we have taken some of this feedback and make some minor adjustments to our issues each month. As always, please contact me to send your feedback on how I can make this monthly Inflation Monitor a better tool or resource for you.

Thank you for reading and I hope you enjoy this month’s issue – Inflation Monitor January 2015.

Kirk Chisholm

Inflation Monitor December 2014

Inflation Monitor / By Administrator / 12/13/2014

Inflation Monitor December 2014 – Introduction

This is the third issue of the Innovative Advisory Group Inflation Monitor. As you will notice, we have made some additional changes to the inflation monitor based on your feedback. Keep the feedback coming, since this will ultimately benefit you. As always, please contact me to send your feedback on how I can make this monthly Inflation monitor a better tool or resource for you.

This month I have added the following indicators:

US Population

In this month’s issue I will be discussing interest rates, gas prices, Gold and Silver, and more. Given the recent sell off in the price of oil and drop in interest rates, I think it would be a good time to discuss the effects on the US economy.

Thank you for reading and I hope you enjoy this month’s issue of the Inflation Monitor.

Kirk Chisholm

Inflation Monitor November 2014

Inflation Monitor / By Kirk Chisholm / 11/15/2014

Inflation Monitor November 2014 – Introduction

This is the second issue of the Innovative Advisory Group Inflation Monitor. We have received a lot of positive feedback on our first issue of that Inflation Monitor. As you will notice, we have taken some of this feedback and made some minor adjustments to our issue this month. As always, please contact me to send your feedback on how I can make this monthly Inflation monitor a better tool or resource for you.

This month I have added the following indicators:

The Rogers International Commodity Index®,
US 10 year TIPS,
Personal Expenditure Consumption Index,
Real median income to the list for reference.
US Debt as a percentage of GDP

In this month’s issue I will be discussing Japan, Deflation, US Oil production, Gold and Silver. Given the most recent US market sell off, I think it would be a good time to discuss the other side of inflation… Deflation.

Thank you for reading and I hope you enjoy this month’s issue – Inflation Monitor November 2014.

Kirk Chisholm

8 Common Mistakes Using a Self Directed IRA

Self Directed IRA / By Kirk Chisholm / 09/18/2014

I decided to write this post because over the years while working with clients, I have come across the same mistakes over and over again. Some of these mistakes are from a misinterpretation of the rules, some are through a lack of knowledge in certain areas, and the most common one being unaware of the capability to invest in alternative investments inside a self directed IRA. While most of the rules are easy to find, unfortunately they don’t all appear in one place. I wrote this post to help address these common mistakes using a self directed IRA.

What is a self directed IRA?

I want to define “self directed IRA” for people who are unaware of the definition. A self directed IRA is an account with preferential tax treatment, which is capable of investing in alternative investments. These alternative investments could be assets such as real estate, tax liens, private mortgages, gold & silver, horses, livestock, farmland, medical equipment, and more. While a self directed IRA can invest in traditional assets such as stock, bonds and mutual funds, it is typically used to invest in alternative investments. For further information about what a self directed IRA is, please read the following post about self-directed retirement accounts

My Story: How I Learned About Self Directed IRAs

Self Directed IRA / By Kirk Chisholm / 09/15/2014

Self Directed IRAs are not a widely known or understood area in the investment community. The term is typically used to describe what an IRA is, an Individual Retirement Account, which is self directed by the account owner. Most people know that this type of account can be used to invest in stocks bonds and mutual funds. What is not widely known is that this type of account can also be used to invest in real estate, tax liens, private mortgages, private businesses, medical equipment, horses, gold and silver coins, and more.

Most people who know me have been aware of my interest in investing in alternative assets with a self directed IRA for many years. What they may not be aware of is…

gold

Inflation Monitor Summary – Composite Ranking

Inflation Monitor – May 2015 – Introduction

Inflation Monitor Summary – Composite Ranking

Inflation Monitor – April 2015 – Introduction

Inflation Deflation Composite Ranking

Inflation Monitor – March 2015 – Introduction

Is the US stock market safe from global deflation?

Income Inequality in America

Inflation Monitor – February 2015 – Introduction

Inflation Monitor January 2015 – Introduction

Inflation Monitor December 2014 – Introduction

Inflation Monitor November 2014 – Introduction

What is a self directed IRA?

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